A healthy gain for the AEX
A strong earnings season, ongoing uncertainty over the Strait of Hormuz and US inflation figures that reduced expectations of interest rate increases by the Fed. This combination created a positive mix from which the AEX index benefited this week.
The AEX index posted a healthy gain this week. As US inflation figures were not as disappointing as feared, the market priced out the prospect of a Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hike this year. The semiconductor sector also continued to recover. Together, these developments helped the AEX index to a 0.9% gain compared with last Friday morning. The main benchmark on the Damrak is trading at around 1,122 points this Friday morning. This means the AEX performed significantly better than the European Stoxx 600, which lost 0.2%.
The biggest gainer in the AEX index was Adyen (+16.8%), which reported better-than-expected results. It was followed by SBM Offshore (+10.5%) and ASML (+7.2%). Prosus (-10.7%) was the weakest performer, followed by Heineken (-4.7%) and DSM-F (-4.12%).
Apart from Adyen and TKH, there was little corporate news*
Adyen’s figures were marginally better than expected, but supported the growth narrative, which boosted investor confidence. Both profit and turnover for the first half of the year were in line with or slightly better than expected. Management also maintained its growth forecast for the year. However, the net revenue growth range of 20–22% was revised upwards to 21–23% due to completed acquisitions that added 1 percentage point.
TKH’s second-quarter results were solid and significantly better than expected in terms of turnover, profitability and margins. The Vision and Electrification divisions drove the results, while the Manufacturing division performed somewhat less strongly. Management reiterated its forecasts for 2026, but the medium-term outlook for the Electrification division was raised slightly.
Calm returns
Next week we will be in the final stages of the earnings season, which has been very strong. Internationally, Home Depot, Estée Lauder, Target, Wal-Mart, Deere and Alibaba are due to report. In the Netherlands, Alfen, a.s.r. and Aegon are due to publish their results. The results from Wal-Mart and Target will provide further insight into the health of the US consumer. While it is clear that life is becoming increasingly difficult for lower-income households in the US, the overall picture is that the US consumer is proving resilient.
There is plenty on the macroeconomic agenda next week, but the figures are not the most significant. On Monday, retail sales, industrial production, investment and employment figures for July will provide insight into the strength of the Chinese economy, which is plagued by persistently weak domestic demand. On Wednesday, the minutes of the latest Fed meeting will be published. However, following this week’s inflation figures, the market no longer expects an interest rate hike this year.
*ABN AMRO also published figures this week, but we are unable or not permitted to discuss them.