ASML shines, but concerns persist
The AEX had a volatile week. Monday got off to a positive start, with the index gaining 0.4%, before semiconductor stocks came under pressure on Tuesday. Sentiment improved on Wednesday following strong quarterly results from ASML, helping the AEX reach a new intraday record of 1,141.12 points.
The mood shifted again on Thursday, however. Higher-than-expected US inflation data and concerns about the returns on substantial AI investments weighed on technology stocks worldwide. On Friday, the AEX opened slightly higher, following an earlier recovery in US markets.
At the time of writing, the AEX is trading at around 1,140 points, representing a modest gain of approximately 0.8% compared with last Friday morning. The strongest performers were Wolters Kluwer (+8.16%), Adyen (+7.71%) and RELX (+7.20%). ASM International (ASMI, -12.95%), BE Semiconductor Industries (Besi, -9.92%) and ASML (-7.04%) were among the weakest performers.
Strong order demand presents ASML with a welcome challenge
ASML took centre stage on Wednesday with results that underline the extraordinary scale of the current investment wave in artificial intelligence (AI). The semiconductor equipment manufacturer reported record revenue of EUR 11.7 billion and almost EUR 5 billion in net profit.
For investors, however, the most interesting news concerned the longer-term outlook. Customers are already discussing capacity for 2029 and 2030 with ASML, as it becomes increasingly clear that the planned expansion for 2027 and 2028 will no longer be sufficient.
The news helped propel the AEX to a record on Wednesday, but much of the enthusiasm faded on Thursday. During a global technology sell-off, ASML was down almost 5% around midday, while ASMI and Besi suffered even steeper declines. Even TSMC’s very strong results were unable to reverse sentiment.
The recent correction in semiconductor stocks appears primarily to reflect a reset of elevated expectations following the recent share-price rally. Investors are concerned about the returns and financing associated with AI investments, while competition from China and potential regulation are creating additional uncertainty.
Underlying demand for semiconductors nevertheless remains robust for now. We therefore maintain our positive view, with a preference for companies that combine a strong market position with a healthy balance sheet and a well-filled order book.
Cybersecurity issues at Ahold Delhaize
Ahold Delhaize has also attracted considerable attention in recent days. A cybersecurity incident prompted the company to take all its systems offline as a precaution. This resulted, among other things, in disruption to supplies and online orders.
On Tuesday, the company began a controlled restart of its systems. Ahold Delhaize said it had no indications that data belonging to customers, employees or business partners had been compromised.
Smaller companies report results
The earnings season also got underway in the Netherlands this week. TomTom reported lower-than-expected revenue and profit, but nevertheless raised its full-year operating margin guidance from 3% to 4%. Investors remained unconvinced, however, with the shares losing around 5% in morning trading.
Fastned and Nedap also published quarterly updates and came under significant pressure. Sligro reported lower quarterly revenue and warned that its operating result for 2026 would be lower.
Looking ahead
Next week, attention will turn to a new round of Dutch corporate earnings. AkzoNobel and Randstad are scheduled to report on Wednesday, followed by Aalberts, Besi and RELX on Thursday.