Chances of a year-end rally continue to decline
Just like last week, this penultimate full trading week of the year also appears to be ending quietly. There is relatively little noteworthy news on either the corporate or macroeconomic front. As the days pass, the chances of a year-end rally for the AEX index are becoming increasingly slim.
On balance, at the time of writing, the AEX index is trading at 949 points, a small gain of approximately 0.20% compared to last Friday morning. The EuroStoxx 600 is also up slightly by 0.70%, at around 583 points. The stocks with the biggest gains are ArcelorMittal (+6.28%), ING (+4.53%) and ASMI (+4.52). Aegon (-5.98%), Unilever (-4.20%) and Warehouses De Pauw (-3.63%) were the biggest losers.
The news that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) had cut interest rates for the third time in a row gave the stock markets a slight boost on Thursday. The decision was not unanimous: two board members voted against it because inflation is higher than desired. Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated that further steps by the central bank in 2026 will depend on inflation and the labour market.
Ice-cream manufacturer Magnum made its stock market debut last week. Magnum has split from Unilever, giving it a listing on the AEX index. For every five Unilever shares, shareholders received one Magnum share. In order to maintain its listing on the AEX, the company must continue to comply with Euronext rules, including those relating to freely tradable market capitalisation and liquidity. If it fails to do so, the company will have to make way for another company when the AEX is rebalanced. A place in the AEX is important because some large investors, such as the ABP pension fund, invest primarily in indices.
There was a lot of news surrounding insurer Aegon this week. The company announced its ambition to become a leading American life insurer and pension provider. As a result, its head office will be relocated to the US, where it will continue under the name Transamerica Inc. The aim is to complete this transition by 1 January 2028. Investors do not seem to appreciate the plans at this stage.
According to Statistics Netherlands (CBS), Dutch companies used artificial intelligence (AI) in 2025: twice as many as in 2023. Text mining and speech recognition are particularly popular. AI is most commonly used for marketing and sales (35%), followed by business administration (32%) and research and development (25%). Large companies are leading the way: 66% of organisations with more than 250 employees use AI, compared to 14% of small businesses. Sectors such as IT and communications (54%) and financial services (28%) use AI most often. The main reason for not using AI is lack of experience (73%), followed by concerns about privacy (49%) and legal consequences (42%).
Meanwhile, analysts are pointing to the narrow basis of the market rally on Wall Street over the past year. The S&P 500 index has risen by more than 17.5% year to date, mainly due to tech giants such as Nvidia, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon and Meta. On the other hand, almost half of the 500 shares in the S&P index have fallen in 2025. Oracle shares fell sharply on Thursday after failing to meet the sky-high expectations of investors.
In terms of Dutch business news, next week's agenda is empty, but this is offset by a flood of macroeconomic figures.