Geopolitics and corporate results drive the AEX
A week ago, the AEX was still above 1,020 points, but slipped gradually in the days that followed and dipped below 1,000 points again on Wednesday. On Thursday, some of the losses were recouped, helped by slightly falling oil prices, stable interest rates and better-than-expected quarterly results.
Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East remained the dominant factor. The oil price once again acted as a barometer. Brent rose from around USD 100 at the end of last week to a peak of around USD 112 and stabilised on Thursday at around USD 111. The unrest is also fuelling the caution of both the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank. Higher energy prices could fuel inflation once again, but the interest rate path depends primarily on whether the inflationary effect is temporary or not.
As European stock markets are closed on 1 May, we are using Thursday’s closing figures as a reference. The AEX ended 0.6% lower at 1,014 points and the Eurostoxx 600 lost 0.2%. In Amsterdam, the stocks with the biggest gains were Magnum (+10.3%) following strong results, IMCD (+3.9%) and ING (+3.8%). The biggest losers were UMG (-10.6%), WDP (-5.6%) and AkzoNobel (-4.6%).
Earnings season in full swing
Earnings season really kicked off in Amsterdam this week. Yesterday, in particular, saw a number of companies release their results and forecasts. Here is a selection of important or notable corporate news.
ING released its first-quarter results, which were better across the board than the market had anticipated. Revenue was higher and net profit also exceeded expectations, mainly thanks to strong net interest income and higher fee income. At the same time, operating costs remained well under control. ING maintained its outlook for 2026 and also announced a EUR 1 billion share buyback programme, underlining that its capital position is comfortable. Investors reacted positively: the share closed 3.8% higher.
ArcelorMittal exceeded expectations in the first quarter. The operating profit was higher than analysts had forecast, and net profit also came in higher than expected. At the same time, the company emphasised that the market climate remains uncertain, with ongoing geopolitical risks and energy-related headwinds. Nevertheless, ArcelorMittal continues to anticipate a gradual improvement in market conditions and cash flows later in the year. On the stock market, this led to only a limited share price reaction as the share gained 0.5%.
Unilever has shown moderate revenue growth in recent months. This growth was mainly driven by pricing measures, whilst volumes gradually picked up again. In a challenging market climate, underlying performance was therefore stable on balance. Unilever continues to emphasise margin improvement, cost control and further simplification of the portfolio. Investors also received a boost: the dividend is set to rise by 3% and a EUR 1.5 billion share buyback programme is to be launched. The share closed 2.3% higher.
Magnum Ice ended the first quarter of 2026 on a solid note, with organic revenue growth across all regions. Although reported revenue fell slightly, this was mainly due to exchange-rate effects. Underlying performance was actually stronger than expected, driven by volume growth and successful product launches. The outlook for the year was reiterated. Investors clearly rewarded this, as the share gained 11.4%. Magnum was by far the best-performing share of the day and the week on the AEX.
UMG reported in a quarterly update that revenue remained flat on balance and profit was lower. The latter was mainly caused by unfavourable exchange-rate effects. At constant exchange rates, however, there was actually strong revenue growth (+8%), driven by streaming and the consolidation of Downtown Music. No comment was made regarding Pershing Capital’s takeover bid. UMG did, however, announce that the size of the share buyback programme would be doubled to EUR 1 billion. On balance, the update was not sufficiently convincing for the market. The share price fell by 8%.
Outlook: Earnings and the Middle East
Next week, macroeconomic data – particularly the purchasing managers’ indices – will provide further insight into growth and market sentiment. At the same time, the earnings season continues, with results from companies including Ahold, DSM Firmenich, Philips, SBM Offshore and Shell. Shell is particularly relevant as any effects of higher oil and gas prices should become apparent in its figures. The situation in the Middle East remains a key factor in investor sentiment and market volatility.