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Developments in the Middle East & Investing

The situation in the Middle East may have an impact on the financial markets and on your investments. On this page you will find an overview of our publications about what is happening and what this could mean for investing.

Read our market comments

Our three scenarios for the Iran conflict

Market comment

05/03/2026

Last Saturday, the US and Israel started a war with Iran. They attacked Iran with airstrikes, while counterattacks from Iran hit Israel and US targets in the region. For now, it remains uncertain which goals the US and Israel want to achieve before concluding their military campaign in Iran. US President Trump mentioned regime change, but how this will be accomplished is unclear.

In this market comment, we discuss the first response of financial markets to the outbreak of the war. We also outline three scenarios detailing how this conflict may develop and the possible impact on financial markets.

Strikes on Iran: what does this mean for investors?

Market comment

02/03/2026

Over the weekend, the United States and Israel carried out a series of (well coordinated) strikes on Iran, killing Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Khamenei. Iran responded with retaliatory attacks, including strikes on US bases in several countries in the region. Meanwhile, although the Strait of Hormuz has not been officially closed, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard prohibited ships from passing through the waterway on Saturday. Furthermore, several insurers of oil tankers have suspended coverage for shipments moving through the strait.

Most of the Middle East is now impacted by the war, and while the trajectory of the war remains uncertain, this market comment outlines our initial views, expectations for markets, and the key risks investors should monitor.

Investing involves risks

Investing involves risks. You could lose (some of) the money you invested. If you are going to invest, it is important that you are aware of this. Invest with money you can spare. Read more about the risks associated with investments.