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Developments in the Middle East and Investing

The situation in the Middle East can affect financial markets and your investments. On this page, you will find an overview of our publications. They explain what’s happening and what this could mean for investing.

Read our market comments

Iran conflict escalates further

Market comment

10/03/2026

The conflict in Iran intensified over the weekend, with no sign of de-escalation. Oil facilities were targeted, while Iran continued to strike Israel and several Gulf states despite earlier signalling it would halt these attacks. Iran ruled out an immediate ceasefire, and the appointment of Mojtaba Khamenei as the new leader indicates Tehran intends to continue to fight. Meanwhile, messages from the White House remain mixed, leaving markets uncertain about the likelihood of escalation or de-escalation.

In short, the situation remains fluid and unpredictable.
In this market comment we outline the response of financial markets, update our scenarios and discuss what this means for investors.

Our three scenarios for the Iran conflict

Market comment

05/03/2026

Last Saturday, the US and Israel started a war with Iran. They attacked Iran with airstrikes, while counterattacks from Iran hit Israel and US targets in the region. For now, it remains uncertain which goals the US and Israel want to achieve before concluding their military campaign in Iran. US President Trump mentioned regime change, but how this will be accomplished is unclear.

In this market comment, we discuss the first response of financial markets to the outbreak of the war. We also outline three scenarios detailing how this conflict may develop and the possible impact on financial markets.

Strikes on Iran: what does this mean for investors?

Market comment

02/03/2026

Over the weekend, the United States and Israel carried out a series of (well coordinated) strikes on Iran, killing Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Khamenei. Iran responded with retaliatory attacks, including strikes on US bases in several countries in the region. Meanwhile, although the Strait of Hormuz has not been officially closed, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard prohibited ships from passing through the waterway on Saturday. Furthermore, several insurers of oil tankers have suspended coverage for shipments moving through the strait.

Most of the Middle East is now impacted by the war, and while the trajectory of the war remains uncertain, this market comment outlines our initial views, expectations for markets, and the key risks investors should monitor.

Investing involves risks

Investing involves risks. You could lose (some of) the money you invested. If you are going to invest, it is important that you are aware of this. Invest with money you can spare. Read more about the risks associated with investments.