The mega IPOs of 2026: catalyst or warning signal?

Global equity markets are on the brink of an exceptional phase, as three of the world’s most valuable private companies – SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI – prepare to go public. Estimates suggest that these IPOs (initial public offerings) could collectively raise up to around USD 200 billion in new capital, making this one of the largest IPO waves ever and a significant moment for equity markets.

The immediate impact of these IPOs on equity markets will initially be limited, but could grow rapidly over time. The main highlight is SpaceX, Elon Musk’s aerospace company, which recently merged with his AI venture xAI. With an expected valuation of around USD 1.75 trillion, the company would instantly rank among the largest in the world.

However, there is an important distinction between total valuation and actual market impact. The freely tradable portion of shares – the so-called ‘free float’ – will be very limited at first, amounting to only about 4% of total shares. As a result, SpaceX’s weight in global equity indices such as the MSCI World Index would be less than 0.1%.

In the months following the IPO, the lock-up period will expire, allowing more existing shareholders to sell their shares. This could rapidly increase the free float and potentially raise SpaceX’s weight in the MSCI World Index toward 2%. This may put pressure on other major index constituents, as popular index funds and ETFs will need to shift capital toward SpaceX shares. As a result, the market impact is likely to grow over time.

For investors, these IPOs offer opportunities to gain exposure to structural growth markets such as AI and satellite communications, as well as potentially new markets like space exploration. At the same time, valuations – especially for SpaceX – are high, meaning that almost everything must go according to plan to meet these lofty expectations. This tension between long-term growth potential and short-term results is likely to lead to significant share price volatility.

Sustainability considerations are also playing an increasingly important role in evaluating these companies. SpaceX elicits mixed reactions from an ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) perspective. On the one hand, the company contributes to global connectivity through Starlink (internet via SpaceX’s satellite network) and could enable more efficient infrastructure in the long term (such as data storage in space). On the other hand, there are clear concerns, including the environmental impact of rocket launches and space debris, as well as governance risks due to the strong reliance on a single dominant founder.

For AI companies such as OpenAI and Anthropic, ESG issues are more focused on energy consumption, data privacy, and ethical questions surrounding AI.

This brings us to the question of whether such large IPOs could mark the end of the current positive market environment. Historically, peaks in IPO activity often coincide with periods of high risk appetite among investors. Companies typically choose to go public when they believe they can obtain a high price for their shares.

During the late-1990s internet boom, many companies also pursued public listings. Eventually, this culminated in the bursting of the dot-com bubble. However, a key difference today is that many AI-related companies are already generating substantial revenue. The risk therefore lies less in the absence of business models and more in overly optimistic growth expectations.

We do not believe that the IPOs of SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI signal an imminent market correction – but they will serve as a test of equity market resilience.

Piet Schimmel – Senior Thematic Equity Expert