The great restart

Investment Outlook

After a tough 2020, which saw dramatic markets and the eruption of a full-blown pandemic, 2021 is expected to be a time of recovery – beginning in the second quarter. In our Investment Outlook, we lay out our vision of what’s to come and how investors can prepare for the global economic restart.

Investing in 2021: the great restart

2020 has been a turbulent year. We do, however, expect sustained economic recovery from the second quarter of 2021 onwards – albeit in volatile market conditions. We believe investors should prepare for this 'great restart' slightly overweight risk in their portfolios. In this video, Head of Investment Strategy Ralph Wessels dives into our investment vision for 2021, including an actionable and concise explanation of risks and opportunities.

Strategic direction

Strategic Direction

In car racing, if one of the competitors is spinning or can’t continue because of a mechanical issue, a safety car comes onto the track. Once order is restored, a restart begins. Right now, the economy seems very far away from such a resumption…
Macro

Vaccine news strengthens conviction in 2021 recovery

The positive vaccine news from Moderna, following hot on the heels on the Pfizer analysis, increased our conviction in a strong and sustained acceleration in global economic growth during the course of next year.
Equities

Equities: Is the Great Acceleration Sustainable?

2020 will be remembered in financial history books. The world has been exposed to the greatest pandemic since 1918 and to the most severe recession and strongest recovery in modern economic history.
Bonds

Opportunities in bond markets

Covid-19 dealt the final blow to core interest rates, but there are still opportunities for bond investors, particularly in emerging markets, higher quality corporate bonds and green bond segments.
Currencies

Dynamics point to a lower dollar in 2021

The US presidential elections are behind us. The new president inherits a double-digit fiscal deficit, a weak economy (contraction in 2020), negative real yields and a divided nation. That said, the economy has been improving and stronger than expected economic data have supported broader market sentiment.
Equity thematic

The future of food

Food supply is set to change fundamentally on the back of a shift in consumer behaviour and innovation. Demand for plant-based ‘meat’ is rapidly growing and cultivated meat is waiting in the wings, the latter boasting only a minimum ecological impact compared with agriculture today.
Commodities

Oil price driven by Biden and OPEC

The policies of president-elect Joe Biden could lead to major shifts in the energy market on both the supply and the demand side. The demand for oil could be negatively affected by his planned investments in the shift towards a more sustainable energy mix.
Sustainability

Covid-19 crisis fuels social enterprise

ESG investing has gone mainstream over the past few years. Whereas in the early years the focus was mostly on the E for environmental and the G for governance, we’ve seen the S for social catching up in a big way in the past few years.
Asset allocation

ESG as an investment factor

It used to be almost universally agreed: Sustainable investing comes at the expense of performance. This was mainly thought to be due to the elimination from the investment universe of some lucrative sectors, such as the high-dividend stocks in the tobacco, alcohol, utility or energy sectors.

The risks associated with investments

The risks associated with investments

Find out which type of investment suits you

Find out which type of investment suits you